In the 1970s, the Yum Kippur War and subsequent oil crisis caused energy prices to skyrocket throughout the world. With them, inflation and interest rates went up, ultimately resulting in a housing crisis and recession. In the 2000s, a similar pattern of events occurred: the Iraq War drove op energy prices, and the resulting inflation was one of the main drivers of the global financial crisis. Today, as the Russo-Ukrainian War is causing rampant inflation, the same domino tiles seem to be falling once again.

Both the 1973 oil crisis and the 2007/2008 global financial crisis were foreseen as scenarios, by Shell and Rabobank respectively. As a result, these organizations were able to thrive when others faltered. In this DRS Insights working paper, Paul de Ruijter and Friso van Nimwegen discuss the similarities and key differences between today's and yesterday's crises, and conclude that history does not need to repeat itself; alternative outcomes are still possible.

Further reading

• Rabobank Economic Research Department, Interest Rate Scenarios. The price of money up to 2010 (2003)
• Philip J. Idenburg, Oog voor de toekomst. Over marketing en consumenten in een veranderende samenleving (2004)
• Daniel Erasmus, The future of ICT in financial services: The Rabobank ICT scenarios (2008)
• Paul de Ruijter, ‘Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovation at Rabobank’, in: Scenarios for Success. Turning Insights into Action
• Paul de Ruijter, Scenario Based Strategy: Navigate the Future (2014)

3 November 2022