Dr. Henk Alkema (1934-2017) talks about the Shell oil prices scenarios that made scenario based strategy famous.
In 1971, after 10 years at Shell Research (Amsterdam) Henk joined the new Shell Group Planning division where he worked with Ted Newland on Long-Range Planning and Technology Forecasting. Their work in 1971-1972 resulted in controversial scenarios regarding high oil prices during the period 1971-1985, which were included in the first set of Shell scenarios in December 1971.
1972 saw the completion of supporting Individual Producer Government Take/Production Strategies, which had already played a key role in the reasoning behind the price scenarios. This early work led to an ongoing interest in strategic planning during Alkema’s further career at Shell and his subsequent work for Booz Allen Hamilton and Andersen Consulting (1994-2000).
Read below the summary of Henk's speech at the Scenario Based Strategy book launch, at Nyenrode Business Universiteit on 19 June 2014.