Incorporating scenarios in a medium-term plan

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) published its latest Medium-Term Plan (MTP), covering the period from 2015 – 2019.

The plan aims to provide strategic direction in the context of a highly dynamic environment, bearing in mind that the end point of the Organisation’s evolution is not yet clear.

The external environment in which the Organisation operates is changing constantly, and at an accelerating pace. The various relevant political, economic, social and technological systems are growing in size and becoming ever more interwoven. In the light of the changing environment and the lack of a clear image of the end state of the OPCW’s evolution, four equally plausible scenarios are discussed in the plan, in order to trigger the necessary resilience and adaptive capacity. The scenarios differ along two key uncertainties: on the one hand the level of conflict and/or chemical weapons use, and on the other hand the resources available.

This incorporation of a scenario matrix into a medium-term plan is a practical example of linking scenarios to planning. De Ruijter trained an internal OPCW team to use the scenario based strategy methodology for this purpose. Read the complete OPCW MTP 2015-2019 here.

If you would like to be informed about De Ruijter’s methodology courses or about our services for the development of a strategic plan, please contact Jolanda van Heijningen: +31 20 6250214 or